While the global calculation of sea temperatures near Indonesia and the implications of temperature anomalies is far less interesting than choosing plastic worm colors, the fact is, the whole ENSO issue really does affect us.
ENSO? That’s the “El Nino Southern Oscillation,” which, for people who understand such things, helps in making long range climate predictions. Of course, for most of us who just take what comes, we’re really more interested in the bottom line. So let me excerpt a bit of the January report (another is coming later this month) or you can check it out for yourself (click here).
“Regardless of its precise peak strength,’ says the report, “El Niño is expected to exert a significant influence on the global weather and climate in the coming months. Most models indicate that SST anomalies… will begin to decrease in early 2010, and that El Niño will persist through April-May-June 2010.”
Furthermore, the forecast indicates: “For the contiguous United States, potential El Niño impacts include above-average precipitation for the southern tier of the country, with below-average precipitation in the Pacific Northwest and in the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys.”
In other words, February could provide more needed rainfall, and March could still be a factor as well.
We’ll know more soon. Either the streets will be wet, or the National Weather Service will have some other story.